September has earned a rather unpleasant reputation on Wall Street.

According to historical data compiled by Yardeni Research, the S&P 500 averaged a 1.2% decline during September from 1928 through 2023, making it the weakest month of the year over that period. September also finished lower more often than higher, 53 down months versus 42 up months, with one unchanged month.

Historical averages are not predictions, but they provide useful perspective.

Why September Can Be Difficult

There are several possible explanations for the so-called “September Effect.” Trading activity tends to normalize after the summer, institutional investors begin positioning portfolios for the final quarter, and investors turn their attention toward year-end tax planning and portfolio adjustments.

But seasonal tendencies should never become an investment strategy by themselves.

As Ecclesiastes 11:4 reminds us:

“Whoever watches the wind will not plant; whoever looks at the clouds will not reap.”

There is an important lesson here for Christian investors. Prudence is biblical; paralysis is not.

We should recognize risks without allowing fear to dictate our decisions. September may bring volatility, but volatility can also create opportunity for disciplined investors who understand what they own, why they own it and how it fits into a long-term plan.

2026 Is About More Than Seasonality

The more important story as we approach the final four months of 2026 is what is happening beneath the market.

Corporate earnings have been exceptionally strong. Second-quarter S&P 500 earnings ultimately rose about 33.5% year over year, according to recent market reporting, while analysts actually increased third-quarter earnings estimates during July, unusual because estimates historically tend to decline as a quarter progresses.

Then there is artificial intelligence.

We believe AI represents much more than the latest technology trend. It is driving an enormous infrastructure buildout involving data centers, semiconductors, electrical equipment, networking, cooling systems, power generation and transmission, cloud computing and other critical infrastructure.

The scale is extraordinary. Recent estimates put 2026 AI-related capital spending by major technology companies at well above $700 billion. That investment has the potential to ripple through many areas of the economy.

The opportunity, therefore, isn’t necessarily about finding the next fashionable AI stock. It is about identifying financially strong companies participating in the infrastructure necessary to build the next generation of computing—and doing so without compromising our biblical values.

Faith-Based Investors Don’t Have to Sit on the Sidelines

This is where faith-based investing becomes especially important.

We don’t believe investors should have to choose between their values and investment opportunity. Our objective is to seek companies with strong fundamentals, attractive growth characteristics and positive long-term trends while applying biblical screens to avoid businesses whose activities conflict with our convictions.

That discipline becomes even more important during powerful investment themes.

Proverbs 21:5 tells us: “The plans of the diligent lead surely to abundance.” Notice the emphasis on diligence rather than speculation. AI may transform the economy, but that doesn’t mean every company associated with AI will be a good investment. Valuations matter. Earnings matter. Balance sheets matter. Competitive advantages matter. And for the faith-based investor, values matter too.

What Should Investors Do This September?

First, don’t panic simply because the calendar turns to September. A market pullback would not automatically mean that the economic or earnings story has changed. In fact, if fundamentally strong companies experience temporary declines while their long-term outlook remains intact, volatility can create attractive opportunities.

Second, maintain diversification. The AI revolution may be exciting, but portfolios shouldn’t become dependent upon one company, one industry or one investment theme.

Third, keep some perspective. The S&P 500 is already up roughly 13% in 2026 through the end of August, and Wall Street strategists surveyed by Reuters recently projected additional gains by year-end. That doesn’t guarantee anything—especially with inflation, interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty and the midterm elections capable of producing volatility, but it illustrates why abandoning a long-term strategy because September has historically been difficult can be a mistake.

Stewardship Over Speculation

Ultimately, Christian investing isn’t about predicting every market turn. It’s about stewardship.  We want to be wise with the resources God has entrusted to us, invest according to our convictions, manage risk thoughtfully and remain prepared to take advantage of opportunities when they arise.

September may bring some seasonal shenanigans. Let Wall Street worry about the calendar. We will focus on faith, fundamentals and disciplined stewardship. And as we head toward the final quarter of 2026, the combination of strong corporate earnings, unprecedented investment in AI infrastructure and continued technological innovation gives us plenty to be optimistic about, while keeping our eyes open to the risks. Invest with wisdom. Invest with purpose. And never compromise your values simply to pursue a return!

 

 

Sources and Links
Yardeni Research — Stock Market Indicators: Historical Monthly & Annual Returns (S&P 500 monthly returns, 1928–2023)
https://archive.yardeni.com/pub/stmktreturns.pdf
FactSet — Analysts Increasing in Quarterly EPS Estimates for S&P 500 for 2nd Straight Quarter (August 6, 2026)
https://insight.factset.com/analysts-increasing-in-quarterly-eps-estimates-for-sp-500-for-2nd-straight-quarter
Reuters — S&P 500 to end 2026 slightly above current levels on profit optimism (August 26, 2026)
https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-end-2026-slightly-above-current-levels-profit-optimism-2026-08-26/
Fortune — Big Tech will spend nearly $700 billion on AI this year. No one knows where the buildout ends (April 30, 2026)
https://fortune.com/2026/04/30/big-tech-hyperscalers-will-spend-700-billion-on-ai-infrastructure-this-year-with-no-clear-end-in-sight-eye-on-ai/
Associated Press — How major U.S. stock indexes fared Thursday, August 13, 2026
https://apnews.com/article/892c5409d8ed26bfd5965eb2a89d9005

Disclosure

Investment advisory and financial planning services are offered through Simplicity Wealth, LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Investing involves the risk of loss. Insurance, Consulting and Education services offered through Firm Foundation Wealth Advisors LLC. Firm Foundation Wealth Advisors LLC is a separate and unaffiliated entity from Simplicity Wealth. This material is provided as general information and is not intended to be specific financial or investment guidance. Before making any decisions regarding your personal financial situation, consult a qualified financial, legal, or tax professional. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy or diversification plan can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining markets. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The views expressed herein reflect the opinions of Firm Foundation Wealth Advisors LLC as of the date referenced and are subject to change as economic conditions change. The information provided has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.


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